In February, the Christian Democrats were riding high in the polls. By May, they had dropped some 10 percentage points and the Greens had surged to a temporary peak. Trailing by two or more percentage points throughout the year, in August the Social Democrats swept past the Greens and the Christian Democrats to take a strong lead in the polls. Much of the jockeying in the polls has to do with the candidates for Chancellor and how they are resonating with the public.
The race to succeed Angela Merkel in Germany’s federal election in less than two weeks is still wide open. Experienced analysts and casual observers have been closely following the polling data in the run up to September 26 in the hope that it might reveal how the election might play out. But few have watched the polling numbers as closely as Dr. Cornelius Hirsch, an Intelligence Analyst with POLITICO Europe and a co-founder of pollofpolls.eu which was acquired by POLITICO. Join the American Council on Germany for a discussion about the polls in the last days of campaigning.